Monday, 17 January 2011

Prescott's slur on Clegg, misreading the data!

THAT'S why Clegg supports AV RT @tobyperkinsmp Lib Dems would support Tories 2nd ahead of Labour by 51% to 16% #no2av

From the fingers of @JohnPrescott. *Sigh*.

Check out the YouGov survey for yourself. Here are the facts...

1. The survey shows Lib Dem support at 8%.

At this level the Lib Dems aren't going to affect anything nationally other than to increase the majority of one party or the other. So much for "increasing coalitions" eh? At 8% the Lib Dems will only effect the outcome of something like 15% of all seats (these are seats where the two main runners are within that 8% of each other, if the spread was even and none of those seats contained Lib Dem in the top two obviously a rough estimate).

2. The survey shows that these 8% currently support a Tory government led by Cameron, rather than a Labour government led by Ed Miliband.

Does this show that Lib Dems prefer Tories to Labour? Or does it show that this core support of 8% are going to currently support the party line of supporting the coalition? Is it a statement of support for the Tories or for Cameron? Is it that they don't like Labour, or is it just Ed that they dislike? This is such an open an ambiguous question from the get go.

3. The survey also shows that Lib Dems (at the time of the Election), who may have no switched to support other parties, prefer Labour to Tories (or Cameron to Ed, etc) by 27% to 38%.

This shows that what has happened here is that people claiming to support Lib Dems are now the mostly entrenched and loyal. All the Labour-friendly voters have, it seems, decided they don't want to vote for the Lib Dems any more.

4. Clegg and Lib Dems put AV on the table around the time of the election, so when the Lib Dems were more likely to shift support to Labour.

Prescott now choosing this survey to make a partisan jab at the Lib Dems and Clegg by aligning them with the Tories on reform is an extremely pathetic and narrow view of the data that has been presented. Unless John thinks that Nick is a fortune teller and knew exactly how the support for his party would wane and switch by joining the coalition and acting the way he has, before he did any of it?


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